2026 pick'em

NFL Picks

Market-informed, stats-driven straight-up win probabilities.

Week 9
Picks updatedNov 9, 2026, 4:02 PM
Market weight95%
Stat model validation61%

Bib’s Sports Ball Pick ‘Em

Accuracy priority

Troy's 1st Entry: #8 of 9 · 760 points · 6 correct picks behind first · 137 games remain

10 points per correct pick. The lowest-scoring week is dropped. Tiebreakers are enabled.

Excluded week: 3.

Choose the higher win probability to maximize expected correct picks.

Submitted picks13 match · 2 differ · 0 missing · 0 unavailableESPN can hide open picks. Unavailable does not mean missing. Source: ESPN public feed.Checked data as of .

Your results this week

12 won · 3 lost · 0 tied

15 of 15 games final · 0 missing picks · 0 unavailable picks in final games.

Results use your submitted ESPN picks. Scores checked .

CIN@ATL
2026-11-08 · 09:30 ET
low
FinalFinal
CIN 34 – ATL 17
Your pick: CIN · Won
Pregame recommendation
CIN
61%
Stat model61%
Market61%
Schedule spreadCIN -3
Crowd90%
The Odds API · 9 books
Oldest price: · 4m old at refresh
Submitted pick: CIN · matches
59°F · wind 4 mph
News: Bengals update return timeline for injured starter - Yahoo Sports (Yahoo Sports)News: Falcons injury report: Team releases estimated report as Falcons land in Madrid for Week 9 - Atlanta Falcons (Atlanta Falcons)
DAL@IND
2026-11-08 · 13:00 ET
medium
FinalFinal
DAL 27 – IND 23
Your pick: IND · Lost
Pregame recommendation
DAL
67%
Stat model57%
Market67%
Schedule spreadDAL -4.5
Crowd87%
The Odds API · 9 books
Oldest price: · 4m old at refresh
Submitted pick: IND · recommendation: DAL
48°F · wind 9 mph
News: George Pickens, Joey Porter Jr. Among Seven Cowboys Questionable for Colts Game - Yahoo Sports (Yahoo Sports)News: Cowboys Headlines: New Overshown injury; Dak, Jerry show frustration with offense - Cowboys Wire (Cowboys Wire)
LA@WAS
2026-11-08 · 13:00 ET
medium
FinalFinal
LA 20 – WAS 13
Your pick: LA · Won
Pregame recommendation
LA
66%
Stat model67%
Market66%
Schedule spreadLA -4.5
Crowd92%
The Odds API · 9 books
Oldest price: · 4m old at refresh
Submitted pick: LA · matches
59°F · wind 11 mph
News: Rams listed Matthew Stafford with elbow injury because reporters asked about ice on it - NBC Sports (NBC Sports)News: NFL news, live updates: Lions LB Jack Campbell says he has ‘full movement’ in lower body after neck injury - Yahoo Sports (Yahoo Sports)
LV@SF
2026-11-08 · 16:05 ET
high
FinalFinal
LV 17 – SF 38
Your pick: SF · Won
Pregame recommendation
SF
78%
Stat model79%
Market78%
Schedule spreadSF -9.5
Crowd94%
nflverse fallback · age unknown
Submitted pick: SF · matches
66°F · wind 4 mph
Fresh consensus odds unavailable; fallback odds have unknown age
News: 49ers Week 9 injury report vs. Raiders: Which receivers to start in fantasy football with Mike Evans likely out - Yahoo Sports (Yahoo Sports)News: Fantasy football Week 9: Injury news, lineup advice and the Raiders backfield - The New York Times (The New York Times)
GB@NE
2026-11-08 · 16:25 ET
low
FinalFinal
GB 45 – NE 27
Your pick: NE · Lost
Pregame recommendation
NE
61%
Stat model56%
Market61%
Schedule spreadNE -3
Crowd54%
The Odds API · 9 books
Oldest price: · 3m old at refresh
Submitted pick: NE · matches
50°F · wind 7 mph
News: Packers list three questionable, rule out five vs. Patriots | Week 9 Injury Report - Green Bay Packers – packers.com (Green Bay Packers – packers.com)News: Packers Announce Unfortunate Micah Parsons Decision - Yahoo Sports (Yahoo Sports)
BUF@MIN
2026-11-09 · 20:15 ET
medium
FinalFinal
BUF 23 – MIN 6
Your pick: BUF · Won
Pregame recommendation
BUF
64%
Stat model65%
Market64%
Schedule spreadBUF -3.5
Crowd82%
The Odds API · 9 books
Oldest price: · 3m old at refresh
Submitted pick: BUF · matches
News: S Geno Stone and WR Trent Sherfield Sr. elevated, WR Joshua Palmer placed on Injured Reserve | Week 9 - Buffalo Bills (Buffalo Bills)News: Bills place wide receiver on injured reserve hours before Monday Night Football - Yahoo Sports (Yahoo Sports)

How to read a card

Pick
The team with the higher blended win probability. This is the accuracy recommendation.
Stat model
Logistic regression on rolling eight-game EPA, success rate, rest days, and neutral-site status. It uses no betting lines.
Market
The average moneyline probability after removing each bookmaker's margin. Fresh consensus requires at least two books updated within 30 minutes.
Odds age
The card shows the oldest included price and its age when the forecast was generated. Fallback odds have unknown age.
Schedule spread
The recorded nflverse spread. Its update time can differ from the live moneyline.
Crowd
The national ESPN pick share. It does not represent this group's actual picks or change the forecast.
Confidence
High means 72% or more. Medium means 62% to 71%. Low means under 62%.
Pool strategy
Current recommendations maximize expected correct picks. The group panel shows the actual standings and dropped-week rule. Older locked games can show an archived pool pick.
Submitted picks
The check compares visible ESPN picks with the recommendation. ESPN can hide open picks, so an unavailable pick is not a confirmed missing pick.
Your results
Final scores come from ESPN. Won or lost refers to your submitted pick, which can differ from the pregame recommendation. In-progress games remain pending.